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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.