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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest surprise.

But the latest field is profoundly different. The list of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and recent strugglers improving collectively. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still